EPP predicted to remain biggest group after EU parliament election

The new parliament is predicted to see a slight shift in power to the left but the EPP will remain the biggest political group.

ALDE will remain the third largest group with a new grouping, which is expected to be formed by the British Conservatives, the next largest.

Libertas, the anti-Lisbon treaty group, is not expected to make any impression in the 4-7 June European elections while Eurosceptic groups will fail to attract the same levels of support as in the last election in 2004.

The big winners will be political groups from central and eastern Europe with Polish MEPs forecast to overtake Germans in being the biggest national delegation in the EPP group.

Overall, the election will continue to be fought on national, rather than European, issues.

These are some of the main findings of a major online prediction (www.Predict09.eu) of the upcoming EU-wide poll and the distribution of seats.

Based on latest opinion polls and a statistical model of the performance of national parties in European elections, the study was conducted by Simon Hix, of the London School of Economics, and Michael Marsh, of Trinity College, Dublin.

The predictions will be updated again in two weeks and then weekly in the run-up to the election.

Speaking in Brussels on Tuesday, Hix said the results show the Socialist group will fall slightly from 217 to 209 with the EPP remaining the largest with 249 deputies.

British Tories and the Czech ODS party are expected to carry out their threat to pull-out of the EPP and form a new grouping which he predicts will secure 58 MEPs.

ALDE is forecast to have 87 MEPs, the left-leaning GUE group 48 and the Greens 39 members.

"The left will gain about 2 per cent but the overall make-up of the new parliament will not be radically different to the current one," said Hix.

A similar exercise carried out by Hix in 2004 came close to predicting the eventual outcome and he says the new methodology will enable them to "do even better" this time.

"Making such predictions is not easy because there a lot of uncertainties but I am 98 per cent sure the EPP will remain the biggest group."

He predicts that, for the first time, MEPs from a 'new' member state – Poland - will form the biggest national delegation in the EPP.

"Crucially, this is likely to change politics not only within the EPP but also parliament," said Hix, who says an increased number of central and eastern European members means they are likely to secure more influential posts, such as committee chairmanships in the new legislature.

The make-up of the PES group will be less dramatic with fewer Spanish members while German and UK members are likely to comprise most of the ALDE group.

He says Libertas, the group founded by Irish businessman Declan Ganley and currently running a high-profile campaign, does "not even register" in national opinion polls.

"Ironically, Libertas is perhaps the only party trying to elevate real European issues in the election campaign. The problem it faces is that this election, as with the previous six, will be decided on purely national issues," said Hix.

"This is even more the case given the current economic climate with voters looking to their national governments for answers to the crisis."

Hix says that in Britain, the Tories will do well at the expense of the UK Independence Party who will perform "quite badly."

Far-right groups will, he believes, secure enough MEPs to form a group but Hix believes they will be insufficiently united to do so.

"They tried after the last elections but it soon fell apart."

He said the issue of the next presidents of parliament and the commission are "inter-connected."

He added, "I expect the two biggest groups, the EPP and PES, to do a deal for the parliament president but this could cause difficulties in securing ALDE support for a Barroso second term."

Turning to voter turnout, Hix predicts that it is unlikely to be any better than the 45.5 per cent in 2004.

"Once again, participation will be low and flat."

PES president Poul Nyrup Rasmussen said, "It is too early to predict the outcome of the European elections."

He described some of the predictions as "highly questionable", noting that Italian Partito Democratico was forecast to be split between the Socialist and Liberal groups, but the Partito Democratico has said it will not be divided.

"I am confident that the PES and the Partito Democratico will be together," he added.

"Our aim is to be the largest group and we have a real opportunity to achieve it. It is the voters who decide."

The Socialists are the only European party to offer "a clear and comprehensive plan to beat the recession", he argued.

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