'Narrow yes' predicted in Irish Lisbon treaty vote

DUBLIN – Twelve hours into polling and presiding officers are reporting the first major push of the day in middle-class areas of south Dublin.

The view from Irish government buildings, or at least from the chair of the Irish Alliance for Europe, Ruairí Quinn, is that support for the treaty is concentrated in the more affluent areas of the country.

“There’s a very clear middle-class vote of yes. And there’s a kind of anti-government working class vote and I think that’s because of the deteriorating economic situation.

“There’s a lot of miscomprehension of what the treaty is because of the no campaign running a campaign of lies. But when you engage with people, they are easily persuaded, I find.”

Quinn, a Labour party member, has spent the day touring Dublin city’s financial services centre, where he says he found a lot of negative attitudes at first.

“What’s curious is the younger generation, the people between about 25 and 35 that work, is that they have a strange ‘no’ attitude, it’s some kind of a selfish ‘me’ generation. There’s a very deep lack of understanding at how significant Europe has been for Europeans, not just for Irish people. It’s like history is a blank for them, they don’t understand where it came from.”

For Quinn, the major issue that will be cemented by the treaty is energy security. “We’re a market of 4.4 million people who don’t carry much clout against the Chinese and the Indians. We’re pooling our sovereignty in certain distinct areas so as to maximise its exercise. And in a way, Lisbon is doing that in areas like climate change and energy.”

He compares using the referendum as a vote of confidence in the government to trashing the stadium instead of sacking the trainer when your football team loses in a competition final. But he admits that the vote is nonetheless linked to domestic issues.

“There’s an underlying unease, an anti-establishment view. There’s a sense of anger, there’s linkages to other problems like the farmers, SIPTU’s [the industrial and services union] reservations with the treaty, and minor groups like the north-west Sligo hospital group in relation to cancer services. That’s the nature of popular democracy. Things get linked into the other.”

As rain clouds gather overhead, adding to the unlikelihood of a high turn-out, Quinn says, “It’s not clear what the turn-out is going to be, I wouldn’t expect it to be more than 45 to 50 per cent."

Quinn cast his vote early this morning, and with just under three hours left, what does he think will be the result? “A narrow yes,” he says.

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