Top expert warns against Georgia's Nato ambitions

An Oxford university expert has told a Brussels conference that any US-led efforts to secure Nato membership for Georgia could spark a crisis in transatlantic relations.

The warning, from international relations specialist Prof Richard Caplan, comes as the EU prepares to deploy a 200-strong observer mission around the disputed regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia on 1 October to monitor Russian withdrawal.

Addressing a conference on the future of Nato in the wake of the short-lived war, he said that Georgia “had not provoked” the conflict but said any moves by the US to press for Tbilisi’s Nato membership could trigger a crisis in international relations.

“Because of the sensitivity of the issue I think it would be best if there were now a pause in Nato enlargement,” said Caplan at a debate organised by the Transatlantic Institute.

“It is difficult to say how long this pause should last but any expansion now to include the likes of Georgia and Ukraine would needlessly irritate Russia.”

Under a French-brokered ceasefire plan, Russia would have 10 days after the deployment of the EU mission to withdraw troops from around South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Caplan, of Oxford's international relations department, called on Moscow to demonstrate a desire “not to cause any more trouble” in the south Caucasus, which he said continues to be a potential flashpoint for further unrest.

Drawing a comparison with the continued presence of 30,000 Turkish troops in northern Cyprus, he said there was no way of knowing what it would take to dislodge Russia from the disputed Georgian areas.

What is certain, he said, is that the options facing Nato to resolve the dispute were “few”.

The conflict in Georgia began on 7 August when Tbilisi tried to retake South Ossetia by force after a series of lower-level clashes.

Russia launched a counter-attack and the Georgian troops were ejected from both South Ossetia and Abkhazia several days later.

Moscow recognised the two regions as independent following a brief but intense conflict with Georgia last month.

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