By Lewis Crofts - 6th May 2004
Poland's government faces a turbulent month and Warsaw's political woes could hit tight deadlines for EU constitutional talks.
If several rounds of elections fail to give care-taker prime minister Marek Belka the full support of the Polish parliament, early general elections loom and Europe’s biggest new member faces political turmoil.
Ex-premier Leszek Miller stepped down on May 2 with his centre-left party in disarray and now the unpopular president’s choice, Belka, faces a gargantuan task: first, to get elected, and secondly to reunite the party.
President Aleksander Kwasniewski has put his backing behind Belka but Warsaw sources say that the former finance minister is unlikely to get the absolute parliamentary majority he needs next week.
The second round will see the Sejm – Poland’s parliament – pick a candidate who similarly will not be able to unite the splintered left wing.
The likely scenario is that Kwasniewski will renominate Belka for the third and final round which should take place by June 2 or 3.
A Warsaw diplomat claims that Belka will go through since all parties wish to avoid the general elections which would automatically ensue.
The left would lose hands down in the August 15 polls, while the mid-summer date would not favour the stronger centre-right party, some estimates saying its turnout would be 3 million less.
The most likely prospect is Belka leading a “weak government without a majority in the Sejm,” according to the source.
Early elections would also almost certainly see Poland’s centre-left commissioner Danuta Huebner heading back to Warsaw.
The chaos ensuing from a failed final round of elections in early June would upset negotiations on the EU constitution for which Poland is the key player.
EU officials have frequently stated their concerns over possible parliamentary changes in Poland.
Belka is in favour of early elections in May or June 2005 and will be hoping a deal on the EU constitution in the meantime will help strengthen his position.
He will also proclaim Poland’s economic advancements – six per cent growth, decreasing unemployment – in the hope of weakening the populist right.
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