By Bruno Waterfield - 23rd March 2004
Europe’s new constitution could be completed by mid-June as expectation grows that a breakthrough is possible at Thursday’s spring EU summit.
The Irish EU presidency has so-far taken a cautious public approach to progress made during intensive behind-the-scenes talks between Europe’s capitals.
After negotiations collapsed amid mutual recriminations and bitter infighting in December Dublin has been wary of making promises that can not be kept.
But, in his most optimistic assessment to date, Irish leader Bertie Ahern on Monday predicted a result by a midsummer summit of EU leaders.
“A mandate has been received from Brussels to consult with colleagues and report to the spring [summit]. I intend to discuss the issue with colleagues on Thursday evening, focusing on the prospects for progress,” he said on Monday.
“I have been heartened by the support I have received in recent weeks and believe that it is possible we can conclude the work of by the June Council [of EU leaders].”
Green shoots of optimism
Hopes will now grow that the constitution can be ready in time for June 11 European elections – a best case scenario played down by the EU presidency.
“By the 17th, 18th of June, that should be completion. If we can do it earlier we will do it earlier, but if not, we will do it by that date,” said the Irish PM.
Ahern’s bullish comments came after a meeting with French leader Jacques Chirac, the man many believe pulled the plug on last year’s attempts to seal a deal.
“We think it is possible to reach a conclusion on that [June] date,” said Chirac.
Brussels has welcomed the latest timetable. "Our reaction is very positive indeed," said the European Commission's official spokesman.
Not Nice
Paris was furious over Poland and Spain’s hardcore defence of current EU voting rights sealed at a Nice summit in 2000 – a political settlement that allows both countries to punch above their weight.
France and Germany backed a draft proposal linking votes at a EU key decision making forum – the council of ministers – to population size.
Signs of compromise from both the Franco-German and the Hispanic-Polish sides, and a new government in Spain, have sparked optimism and rumours of “at least two” tabled deals.
But Ahern has other key meetings with UK and Spanish leaders to go, and the man, seen by many EU diplomats, as “a wily Irish fixer” will beware talk of miracle solutions.
Springtime for Ireland...
Dublin, holding the EU six-monthly rotating presidency, is painfully aware of the damage done to Rome when it had the job and oversaw a failed Brussels Christmas summit on December 13.
Italian leader Silvio Berlusconi ended up with egg on his face with his brash claims he could cut the gordian knot of constitution deadlock - a trap that Ahern will not step into.
“I have a formula in my pocket that recognises Poland and Spain as great countries. I shall pull it out at the last minute," said Berlusconi 48 hours before talks collapsed.
Ahern is seeking to avoid another failure coming at the symbolic moment the EU enlarges from 15 to 25 states on May 1.
According to reports and national government briefings support is growing for various permutations of a “dual key” EU voting rights system – work Spain has described as “great progress”.
Such a deal would allow built in safeguards against the EU being “railroaded” by its biggest members – Britain, Germany and France.
Compromise has focused on draft reforms to simplify ‘Qualified Majority Voting’ (QMV) from a complex count based on a political settlement to a ‘Double Majority System’ (DMS).
Political arithmetic
The existing Nice treaty is based on a deal designed to give Warsaw and Madrid extra clout under a politically weighted vote system.
Germany has 29 votes under the present balance reflecting its population of 82 million.
But Spain gets 27 votes with 39 million citizens – almost the same clout as Berlin but with less than half the population.
Poland, set to enter the EU in May, has the same deal as Spain – 27 votes and 38 million people.
Warsaw, backed by Madrid, held out against last year’s proposal for a ‘double majority’ based on a straight 50 per cent of national governments which also represent 60 per cent of the EU’s population.
Both France and Germany wanted the shift, as a move toward a simplified decision-making process based on population, and as a more effective means of policy execution.
Power sums
But smaller states were concerned that the EU ‘big three’ – Germany, France and the UK – with 44 per cent of Europe’s population would be able to form an automatic blocking minority.
Fears have been fuelled by increased moves by Berlin, Paris and London to hold their own summits, sparking accusations that the three were a ‘directorate’ driving EU policy in their own interests.
But under one of two schemes brokered by Ireland, and backed by Berlin, a majority of 55 per cent also representing 55 per cent of Europe’s population would be the threshold for a decision by European ministers – cancelling out a ‘big three’ bloc.
Another proposal could see a minority of five countries given 'blocking' powers even if the population arithmetic does not add up.
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