By Bruno Waterfield - 9th March 2004
German moves towards constitution compromise on EU voting rights may break deadlocked talks on Europe’s institutional future.
A proposal being touted in Berlin political circles could see a stalled constitutional treaty kick-started in time for European elections this June.
Dublin, currently holding the EU's rotating presidency, has just over two weeks to find room for manoeuvre before reporting to EU leaders at a European summit on March 25.
And behind-the-scenes diplomatic jockeying indicates that hard-line stances in key national capitals may be softened.
But despite growing optimism Irish sources are playing down talk of a breakthrough and stressing the need for more work.
Early days
"It is too early to call yet," said an official.
"We haven't actually put any formal proposals on the table, whether on voting weights or any other issues."
Germany is signalling that a new voting formula, preserving elements of reform, but preventing Europe’s ‘big three’ – Berlin, Paris and London – from forming a blocking minority may open the door to progress.
Sources privately confirm that Dublin, Brussels and Kanzleramt corridors are buzzing with talk of deals.
"In discussions certain figures are coming up, often they aren't new," said one source close to negotiations.
National officials insist that Germany has always sought "reasonable compromise" on the vote issue.
"Any compromise will centre around numbers, that is not surprising, and numbers have been mentioned off the record in Berlin," said a source.
December deadlock
December negotiations on a European constitution collapsed following Polish and Spanish opposition to proposals to shake-up decision making by policy councils of Europe’s ministers.
France and Germany were equally intransigent over reforms to simplify ‘Qualified Majority Voting’ (QMV) from a complex count based on a political settlement to a ‘Double Majority System’ (DMS).
The existing Nice treaty is based on a deal designed to give Warsaw and Madrid extra clout under a politically weighted vote system.
Germany has 29 votes under the present balance reflecting its population of 82 million.
But Spain gets 27 votes with 39 million citizens – almost the same clout as Berlin but with less than half the population.
Poland, set to enter the EU in May, has the same deal as Spain – 27 votes and 38 million people.
Not Nice
Warsaw, backed by Madrid, held out against last year’s proposal for a ‘double majority’ based on a straight 50 per cent of national governments which also represent 60 per cent of the EU’s population.
Both France and Germany wanted the shift, as a move toward a simplified decision-making process based on population, and as a more effective means of policy execution.
But smaller states were concerned that the EU ‘big three’ – Germany, France and the UK – with 44 per cent of Europe’s population would be able to form an automatic blocking minority.
Fears have been fuelled by increased moves by Berlin, Paris and London to hold their own summits, sparking accusations that the three were a ‘directorate’ driving EU policy in their own interests.
Berlin is now lending support to a system that German sources claim preserves the principle behind reform.
Under a scheme floated by Ireland a majority of 55 per cent also representing 55 per cent of Europe’s population would be the threshold for a decision by European ministers – cancelling out a ‘big three’ bloc.
The move may soothe Spain and Poland especially if combined with transitional arrangements, including reviews, for reform.
Current voting weights are in place until 2009 – a period that could see the EU grow to 27 members states – and Europe’s leaders may decide to “give Nice a chance” until 2014.
Have your say...
Please enter your comments below.