By Martin Banks - 30th November 2009
The most likely result of hostile partition would not be independence for Turkish Cypriots but integration into Turkey
International Crisis Group
A report has warned that a victory for "hardline nationalists" in next year's Turkish Cypriot leadership elections could lead to a breakdown in talks aimed at reunifying the divided island.
A report by the International Crisis Group said there was "every reason to believe" that a resolution to the current negotiations was possible.
But the group warned that this was less likely to happen unless talks were resolved before the elections in the occupied northern part of the island next April.
The report said the "current opportunity owes much to the good fortune that the (two) communities are lead by two men who see eye-to-eye and that there are supportive governments in Athens and Ankara."
It warns, however, "If there is no agreement in place, it seems likely that a hardline nationalist will win the Turkish Cypriot leadership election in April and the current process will break down."
The report - published in September - says that "both sides" would lose from this, "especially since the impasse does not appear to be the international community to be the fault of any particular party".
It says the Turkish Cypriots would lose by any breakdown in the talks because the Greek Cypriots "are well placed" to continue frustrating their quest for EU aid, direct trade and recognition.
"The most likely result of hostile partition would not be independence for Turkish Cypriots but integration into Turkey.
"Turkey has long proven it can bear the multi-billion dollar cost and diplomatic burden of a failure to solve Cyprus, but the burden is becoming much heavier."
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