By Bruno Waterfield - updated at 12.30 - 16th May 2004
Time may be too tight and talks too tough to seal a midsummer EU constitution deal, Britain’s foreign minister has warned.
Breaking the deadlock over a new EU constitution tops the agenda of a Brussels meeting of Europe's foreign ministers.
With just one calendar month to go before a June 18 deadline to agree an institutional blueprint for an enlarged Europe time is running out.
UK foreign minister Jack Straw has cautioned colleagues that there is still a lot of work to do over a two day gathering.
“I dare say there will be a couple of days of hard bargaining ahead,” he said. “Nothing is decided until everything is decided.”
Two Irish EU presidency working papers divide outstanding issues between the non-contentious and areas where "political input is now required".
Hot topics will be the scope of EU decision-making - but, formally at least, not the method of counting votes - and the composition of the European Commission.
Dublin has been putting in overtime to secure agreement with Irish leader Bertie Ahern spending May shuttling around Europe’s capitals.
Spring sunshine has dispelled some of last winter’s gloom when December talks failed to bring accord.
But despite the optimism real areas of disagreement remain and old bones of contention may be picked over.
Speaking on Monday Straw refused to rule out the possibility of delays pushing back a constitution beyond June – from the Irish EU presidency to the Dutch.
“There is always that possibility, so I will make no promises,” he said. “We live in hope.”
The range of proposed policy areas subject to EU decision making – and votes at councils of Europe’s ministers – still alarm some countries, with the UK in the lead.
London and others are happy to let Europe take its time, the existing EU treaty is in effect until 2009, and Straw is not keen to rush a constitution.
But tweaking the wording and building in safeguards on migrant rights and criminal cooperation should soothe fears in some capitals.
More work also needs to be done to placate both euro enthusiasts and defenders of national sovereignty on limited EU decisions on tax, budgets, trade, social and foreign policy.
Composition and size of the European Commission seems to be a done deal with Brussels biting the bullet and accepting cuts to the EU executive after 2014.
Europe’s arcane voting rules at councils of European ministers are the most intractable area of dispute.
Spain and Poland both benefit from politically weighted votes under the current Nice EU Treaty.
New vote proposals to link clout more directly to population size alienated Warsaw and Madrid and sank last year’s constitution negotiations.
Dublin is said to have brokered proposals which keep the principle of ‘double majority’ – a majority of ministers and a majority of the EU’s population – but crunch the numbers.
Warsaw and Madrid oppose draft constitution proposals to set the ‘double majority’ at 50 per cent of ministers who also represent 60 per cent of the population.
Poland and Spain fear – along with others – that such a balance gives Britain, France and Germany, a permanent veto, with the EU’s ‘big three’ wielding votes for 44 per of the population.
Both France and Germany wanted the shift, as a move toward a simplified decision-making process based on population, and as a more effective means of policy execution.
But smaller states are concerned that the EU ‘big three’ – Germany, France and the UK – with 44 per cent of Europe’s population would be able to form an automatic blocking minority.
Fears have been fuelled by increased moves by Berlin, Paris and London to hold their own summits, sparking accusations that the three were a ‘directorate’ driving EU policy in their own interests.
Under a scheme floated by Ireland a majority of 55 per cent also representing 65 per cent of Europe’s population would be the threshold for a decision by European ministers – cancelling out a ‘big three’ bloc.
The move may soothe Spain and Poland especially if combined with transitional arrangements, including reviews, for reform.
Current voting weights are in place until 2009 – a period that could see the EU grow to 27 or more member states – and , like the commission, Europe’s leaders may decide to “give Nice a chance” until 2014.
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