By Daisy Ayliffe - 24th August 2005
Political turbulence in France will set the scene for autumn EU discussions on the European social model.
The European Commission is due to produce a report on “the sustainability of a social model in Europe” for a summit of EU leaders in October.
As the EU prepares for the debate on the future of the European social model, the issue is expected to be at the heart of a turbulent period in French politics.
Many commentators are warning that France could be facing its worst period of social unrest for a decade as the country’s politicians return after the summer break.
Prime minister Dominque de Villepin will hope his ministers are well rested as the government will need all the energy it can muster to weather a stormy autumn period.
The administration returns to an economy scarred by soaring petrol prices, high unemployment and sluggish economic growth.
The bleak economic picture is exacerbated by angry trade unions and a raft of deeply unpopular labour reforms that the government still has to push through.
Since the cataclysmic ‘non’ to the EU constitution in May, French president Jacques Chirac’s poll ratings have scarcely moved and he retains the dubious distinction of being the country’s most unpopular head of state ever.
Although de Villepin’s popularity appeared to rise over the summer, once economic measures get underway, he is unlikely to remain so well-liked.
The French PM has been meeting his ministers daily through the tail end of August, calling for a concerted effort to focus on “matters that interest the people.”
Jobs, the economy and social affairs will be the government’s top priority in a bid to cut a national unemployment rate of more than ten per cent.
A controversial part of the package to tackle the problem involves the New Employee Contract (CNE), allowing companies to fire workers without justification at any time within the first two years of employment.
The CNE has been acclaimed by businessmen who welcome the introduction of flexibility into the country’s highly regulated labour market.
But powerful French public sector unions are fiercely opposed, seeing the move as a step towards a liberalised "Anglo-Saxon" labour market.
Union leaders are gearing up for what is traditionally the French main strike season calling a first mass day of action in late September.
But Chirac may benefit from disarray and deep splits within the opposition Socialists over the EU constitution.
Current Socialist Party leader Francois Hollande, who backed a ‘oui’ vote, has been outstripped by his arch rival Laurent Fabius, who backed a ‘non’.
A Thursday Liberation poll ranked socialist support for Fabius third, 21 per cent, and Hollande sixth, 16 per cent, in popularity rankings among supporters.
Top of the poll of socialist leaders was former French PM Lionel Jospin with 57 per cent – despite his calamitous defeat in the 2002 presidential elections when he was beaten by the far-right Jean Marie Le Pen.
Irrespective of personality clashes and EU constitution divisions the fight against unemployment unites the French left.
But while 69 per cent of socialists agree with de Villepin that unemployment is the top priority they are set to register stiff opposition to the French government’s cure.
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