By Martin Banks - 8th April 2009
You have to be careful with such surveys
Joseph Daul
MEPs have given a guarded response to the findings of a major study predicting the likely outcome of June's European elections.
The survey predicts that the EPP will remain the biggest group after the 4-7 June poll and the Socialist group will fall slightly.
It says the Greens/EFA group will fall from 43 members to 35 while the ALDE group will also lose seats.
The UK Independence Party, it forecasts, will perform badly as will Libertas, the anti-Lisbon treaty group.
Reaction to the study was swift, with EPP leader Joseph Daul saying,"You have to be careful with such surveys but we expect and hope that the EPP will remain the biggest and most influential group."
He said it was difficult to say whether, as the survey predicts, the Polish delegation will replace the Germans as the largest national delegation in the group.
Senior Danish MEP Poul Nyrup Rasmussen said, "It is too early to predict the outcome of the European elections."
Rasmussen, who is stepping down at the election, added, "In any case, some of the predictions are highly questionable. For example, they forecast that the Italian Partito Democratico will be split between the Socialist and Liberal groups whereas the Partito Democratico has said it will not be divided. I am confident that the PES and the Partito Democratico will be together.
"Our aim is to be the largest group and we have a real opportunity to achieve it.
"It is the voters who decide. There is a political choice between us and our conservative and liberal opponents. The people are looking for a way out of this terrible crisis. We are the only European party to offer a clear and comprehensive plan to beat the recession," said Rasmussen, current president of the pan-European Party of European Socialists.
Responding to claims that his party may win less than a handful of seats, Libertas founder Declan Ganley said, "Libertas is a brand new political force which is not taken into account in this methodology. The organisers themselves itself state that the methodology is partly based on previous voting records. How can this reflect the current campaign?"
Chris Davies, a senior member of the ALDE group, said, "We are confident the group will again hold the balance of power after the election.
"It is easy to make predictions on the basis of statistical swings but, as always, it will all come down to national circumstances and the uncertainties of the election campaign."
Nigel Farage, UKIP leader, said, "We currently enjoy more support in Britain than we did in 2004, at the time of the last election and we are confident of doing well.
"At a comparative stage of the 2004 campaign, academics predicted that the number of UKIP members would fall from three to nothing. In fact, we went from three to 12."
A spokesman for the Greens/EFA group rubbished the survey findings, saying, "Rather than lose seats, we believe we will do marginally better this time and gain a few. The survey underestimates our prospects. This is partly because of mistakes in its calculations."
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