By Bruno Waterfield - 5th January 2004
A deal on Europe's constitution must be clinched in 2004, Brussels is set to tell the incoming Irish EU presidency.
During a Dublin meeting on Tuesday European Commission chief Romano Prodi will tell Ireland's premier Bertie Ahern to make kick-starting EU treaty negotiations a priority.
“The first thing, the priority… is to conclude the ongoing negotiations… as soon as possible, by the end of the year at the latest, and preferably, if possible, already during the Irish presidency [before July],” said a Brussels spokesman on Monday.
“That is what we are all working on at the moment.”
Prodi and EU heavy hitters France and Germany are warning that 2005 could see the emergence of a 'two speed' Europe unless EU leaders back a European constitution in 2004.
“The issue at hand is what happens if there is no constitution, if the negotiations fail, if there is no solution to the outstanding problems by the end of year,” said the commission spokesman.
“[Prodi] has said in that case he foresees the possibility for an ‘avant garde’ or a two tier Europe… the situation can not continue indefinitely with progress halted or held captive by differences of view.”
Constitutional talks ended in ignominious collapse last year with Europe’s leaders at loggerheads over votes wielded by Poland and Spain at EU councils of ministers.
In a Monday interview, German leader Gerhard Schröder announced that Berlin would be pushing to clinch a deal this year.
“We have put what we consider right on the table. We'll have to see if we can get a decision on this basis by the end of 2004 at the latest,” he told Der Spiegel.
Berlin is not in the mood for compromise and will consider breaking away from the pack unless Spain and Poland back reforms to EU decision making.
“There will be no concessions on the weighting of votes in the council,” he said.
A December 13 Brussels summit fell apart after national capitals remained deeply divided over plans to scrap voting strengths enshrined in the EU’s Nice Treaty.
Germany has 29 votes under the present balance reflecting its population of 82 million.
Madrid gets 27 votes with 39 million citizens – almost the same clout as Berlin but with less than half the population.
Poland, set to enter the EU next May, has the same deal as Spain – 27 votes and 38 million people.
Spain and Poland were opposed to proposals for a ‘double majority’ vote at key decision making councils of European ministers.
Under the proposed plan 50 per cent of ministers who represent 60 per cent of the EU’s population would carry the day.
For Schröder the issue – and Spain and Poland’s intransigence – highlights a completely different approach to the EU.
“The conflict in Brussels in mid December was a conflict about the different weight accorded to European and national interests. Where there is any doubt, the integration of the EU has precedence for Germany and France,” he said.
But Ireland and Brussels have their work cut out to deliver an EU constitution in 2004.
Negotiations must now wait until after Spanish elections in March 2004 and polls for the European Parliament in June.
The summer months will not see progress as Europe heads for the beaches and the Netherlands assumes the EU’s six months rotating presidency.
But the Hague will face acrimonious talks over the EU’s financial perspectives and the uncertainty of a new 25-strong European Commission – which must publish its work programme in December.
The constitution then slips into 2005 and London’s leadership of the EU during a UK election year – a prospect that may see even further postponement and the looming possibility of a ‘two speed’ Europe.
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