Roche admits he's 'nervous' over vote on EU treaty

By Martin Banks - 22nd September 2009

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Ireland's minister for European affairs Dick Roche says he is "nervous" about the way his countrymen will vote in next month's referendum on the Lisbon treaty.

In an interview with Lyon-based Euronews, he said that despite a lead in the polls for the "Yes" campaign he won't relax until after the vote on 2 October.

He comments come as Irish-based bookmaker Paddy Power make an overall YES vote percentage of between 55-60 per cent their most favoured outcome in the forthcoming referendum. The bookie is offering odds of 13/8 on the total Yes vote falling between 55-60 per cent and 15/8 that it falls between 50-55 per cent.

However, a Gael opinion poll published on Tuesday suggests the opposite, predicting that the treaty will be heavily defeated by a margin of 59 per cent to 41 per cent.

Roche told Euronews, “Well, I would not be telling you the truth if I said I'm not nervous.

"A referendum is always difficult to predict. I've been out canvassing, visiting people in their homes. I've been in seven or eight counties at this stage, and I have to say the feeling is better than it was last year.

"People are more focussed on the issue. The economic downturn, of course, has meant that people are more focussed on the economic realities that Ireland, a small island that depends to an extraordinary degree on exports and on foreign direct investment, that we have to be a part of mainstream Europe.

"We don't have the opportunity to park ourselves in some sort of eurosceptic zone.

"And I think that the concessions, the guarantees which have been given, are prudent, they are well focussed and they meet the concerns which were mentioned in last year's referendum campaign."

Roche, who has been touted to be Ireland's next EU commissioner, went on, "We are about a referendum that will make a decision on the treaty, full stop.

"President de Gaulle got it right many years ago when he said the problem with a referendum is that you get answers to different questions than the questions you asked.

"We want to make sure that that doesn't happen. Because, as the posters out there say, from one of the big business groups in Ireland, it's that Ireland's recovery starts with a 'yes' vote."

He told the broadcaster, "And so does Europe's recovery. And this is very important. It's not just about Ireland. It's about the 26 other member states and the 490-odd million people across the whole of Europe.

"Because it's in everybody's interest that Europe becomes a more democratic space. It's in everybody's interest that we have a more efficient institutional structure.

"And it's in everybody's interest that we have a more effective say in the world. Those are three things that the treaty would produce: more democracy, more efficiency and more effectiveness. And, you know, who opposes any of that?"

Responding to the Gael poll, UK eurosceptic MP Bill Cash, chairman of the European Foundation, said, "This shows there is overwhelming support among the Irish to kill off this treaty once and for all."