By Bruno Waterfield - 18th February 2005
Apathy may be the winner in Europe’s first vote on the EU constitution when Spain goes to the polls on Sunday.
The country’s referendum campaign closes on Friday ahead of the vote on February 20 – Europe’s first democratic test of the new treaty.
Spanish Prime Minister José Luiz Rodriguez Zapatero will join forces with opposition leader Mariano Rajoy to formally close the Spanish EU constitution referendum campaign.
European Parliament President Josep Borrell will try to rally yes voters at an event in Malaga ahead of Sunday’s Spanish ballot.
Other EU political heavy hitters have made a homage to Catalonia to back Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodriguez Zapatero.
French President Jacques Chirac and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder have both urged Spain to vote yes.
Spain’s political establishment is backing the constitution across left and right lines but the campaign has failed to fire the imagination of the public.
The Spanish campaign’s outcome is expected to be a ‘si’ after a February 5 poll put support at between 77 per cent and 81 per cent.
But the prospect of a low turnout could make the referendum less certain for Madrid and Zapatero's government.
Polling by Barcelona’s Instituto Opina predicts that 60 per cent may stay at home.
An Ifop survey on February 5 put the yes camp on 25 per cent, the ‘no’ opposition on 20 per cent and the ‘don’t knows’ on 46 per cent.
Senior politicians have played down expectations by saying anything over a 30 per cent turnout would be satisfactory.
Some campaigners have criticised the Spanish political class for ducking the debate – two members of the government's parliamentary coalition, Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya and the Communist Party are calling for a ‘no’.
At least nine other EU member states are set to hold referendums over the next 18 months with difficult campaigns expected in the UK and in France.
Hungary, Lithuania and Slovenia have already ratified the EU constitution in parliamentary votes.
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