By Bruno Waterfield - 20th February 2006
The EU is set to become an economic powerhouse but will work at different speeds on the political level, Germany's commissioner predicted.
Speaking to the German Die Welt newspaper, Günter Verhuegen forecasts economic success as the EU gears up for economic growth.
But the European commission vice-president notes moves to closer political union may not include everyone – a signal that the idea of a two-tier Europe around a Franco-German core is alive and well.
“I am convinced that we will be the strongest economic region of the world in 20 years, if in the coming years member states are courageous in tackling reform,” he told the newspaper.
“I also believe that we will have political union in 20 years - although perhaps not with all the countries that are currently in the EU.”
The idea of a twin-speed Europe has allies in Germany, France and Benelux countries but was set back by French and Dutch referendum defeats last year.
‘Enhanced cooperation’ between groups of countries is possible with the agreement of all Europe’s leaders and has driven EU policy in the past.
On the outside of closer political union would be countries such as the UK, Denmark, Ireland and more free-markets in new EU countries.
Verhuegen, currently holding the commission's economy portfolio, sees a core Europe emerge – presumably after the EU resolves the European constitution – on a variety of policy fronts.
“Certain European states will agree common policy for foreign, economic and finance policy as wells as justice,” he forecasts.
The commissioner, a member of the last EU executive that drafted the services directive, blames “presentation [for] the difficulties, which we have today”.
“The EU has reacted too little to the increasing concern of people over the opening of markets. European institutions underestimated the fear of job losses,” he argued.
“We know that the opening of markets costs no jobs but creates employment in the long run. But it is not enough that we know. People must understand it.”
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