Solving the ‘Cyprus problem’

If upcoming talks go well, northern Cyprus could be brought into the EU fold by next year, Mehmet Ali Talat tells Martin Banks

“Highly fragile” is how Mehmet Ali Talat, leader of the de facto Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) describes the current political situation in Cyprus. He told the Parliament Magazine that the idyllic Mediterranean island is on the verge of permanent partition unless the latest negotiations with his Greek Cypriot counterpart, Demetris Christofias, are successful.

The two leaders are due to meet on 25 July, hopefully paving the way for full-scale negotiations to begin at the start of September.

Despite certain reservations, Talat, who has less than two years of his five-year term remaining, believes there are real grounds for optimism that the seemingly never-ending conflict between the island’s Greek and Turkish communities could soon be resolved.

One of the main reasons he is encouraged is the long friendship he has enjoyed with Christofias, who was elected president of the Republic of Cyprus in February this year.

At a landmark meeting in March, both sides agreed to open the Ledra Street crossing in the capital, Nicosia, which was closed off by UN peacekeeping troops after inter-communal clashes in 1964 – long before Turkish military action in 1974 resulted in a complete partition of the island.

“I have a good working relationship with him. He wants to restart the negotiations and reach a solution in order to avoid permanent partition. He is a man I can do business with,” said Talat of Christofias, before adding, “He’s also afraid of being the guy who divided the island forever.”

However, he warns that there are no guarantees, not least because Christofias leads a governing coalition consisting of forces which remain fiercely opposed to reunification, insists Talat. “The public in the north are becoming increasingly frustrated at the sacrifices they are having to make because of our isolation,” he said, speaking at his office near the so-called green line dividing Nicosia – the west’s last divided city.

Indeed, there are opinion polls which indicate that the majority of Turkish Cypriots in the north are in favour of the two-state solution, in other words, permanent partition. Talat readily accepts that this “totally” contradicts the outcome of a 2004 referendum in which the 250,000 Turkish community in northern Cyprus overwhelmingly approved a peace plan devised by Kofi Annan, then secretary general of the UN, to reunify the island.

The Annan plan, a 9500-word epic, would have abolished the UN-patrolled green line, reunited the island as a loose federation and allowed the Republic of Cyprus to join the EU. However, in another referendum, three-quarters of the Greek population of southern Cyprus rejected the plan. As the island’s internationally recognised government, southern Cyprus was allowed to enter the EU and its economy has boomed ever since.

Talat supports the plan for a bizonal, bicommunal system – the term used in current talks – where the much smaller Turkish Cypriot community would be guaranteed political equality, but he admits that many potential obstacles remain to be solved.

These include ending the presence of the estimated 35,000 Turkish troops in the north, discussions of restitution or compensation for property and land lost, and the right of return of refugees on both sides.

Talat, whose main task is to help resolve the island’s status, said, “My mission is to reunify, or unify as I prefer to call it, this island and this, I believe, is still the most likely solution. A two-state solution for a country of this size is not viable. Originally, my target was to reach a solution by the end of this year, but I do not know if we can achieve that now. I can live with a short delay but it’s important to keep the current momentum going. If we can, then I remain hopeful a newly united island could join the EU sometime next year.”

Turning to relations with the EU (whose role is currently limited to technical advice), Talat wants the French presidency to inject fresh impetus into finding a solution to the Cyprus problem, saying, “Much more could be done immediately to end our economic isolation. This includes lifting trade barriers which have proved so damaging.” He also urges member states not to continue using Turkey’s EU membership as a “bargaining chip” in the debate on the island’s future.

Talat’s comments are echoed by Ferdi Sabit Soyer, prime minister of the de facto TRNC, who compares the conflict to past enmity between Germany and France. “Just as those two countries have grown to coexist happily as part of the EU, so too can the two communities in Cyprus. That is our inspiration,” he said.

On the economic impact of the TRNC’s isolation, Hasan Ince, head of the Turkish Cypriot chamber of commerce, said that trade, transportation (the north’s Ercan airport has no flights to anywhere except Turkey), sporting and cultural barriers were continuing to severely hurt his community.

The north, he pointed out, currently has an “over-reliance” on Turkey, which is the only country that recognises the TRNC and which is the destination for about two-thirds of its exports. “This is not sustainable in the long term and that is why we need to be part of the international community,” he said. Unlike the south, parts of the north, for all its natural beauty, appear marooned in a 1960s time warp.

But Hasan Kilic, who is responsible for tourism in the north, says all is not doom and gloom, with plans to more than double the number of hotel beds to 35,000 by 2013 in a bid to replicate the south’s success story in tourism.

Over the same period, he hopes that the number of tourists will triple from the current 800,000 per year, partly by promoting the north’s many cultural, historical and environmental attractions. “We have a lot to offer and, hopefully, more and more people will get to know about this soon,” he said.