By Jacqueline McGlade - 23rd November 2011
Europe has taken some concrete steps towards tackling climate change. Now it’s time to for other major players and emerging economies to follow
Jacqueline McGlade
We must consider the impacts of various policies if we are to see a reduction in greenhouse gases, argues Jacqueline McGlade.
Temperature rises of two degrees celcius or more above the pre-industrial level are likely to cause major disruptions. Such changes could outpace our ability to adapt at an affordable economic, social and environmental cost.
As economic growth returned to most of the world in 2010, man-made greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have increased, a development which makes the internationally agreed two degrees celcius target seem increasingly unlikely.
GHG emissions increased by 2.4 per cent in the European Union (EU) 2009-2010, according to early analysis by the European Environment Agency (EEA). During the same period, global emissions grew by approximately six per cent.
However, the increase in Europe should be seen in the context of economic recovery – the increase in 2010 was a lot less than the recession-influenced fall of seven per cent emissions decrease in 2009. In addition, the long-term perspective shows emissions have decreased 15.5 per cent since 1990.
For the 15 EU member states with a common commitment under the Kyoto Protocol (the ‘EU-15’), emissions were 10.7 per cent below base year levels, still well below their collective eight per cent reduction target for the first commitment period from 2008 to 2012. Nonetheless, Austria, Italy and Luxembourg will have to strengthen their efforts in order to meet individual Kyoto targets.
Looking ahead to 2020, the member states will have to implement planned measures to achieve emission reductions beyond the EU unilateral 20 per cent reduction commitment, which is effectively a precursor to the much deeper emission cuts needed in the long run to build a low-carbon economy.
How did the EU manage to reduce emissions? Although emissions are still very closely tied to economic activity, many different policies have played an active role in bringing down greenhouse gas emissions in the past. Support for renewable energy and energy efficiency have been the most important intentional drivers of emissions cuts.
However, recent EEA analysis showed that several other policies have helped. For example, efforts to reduce water pollution and to reform the common agricultural policy have had the additional benefit of reducing emissions of methane and nitrous oxide, two potent greenhouse gases.
In parallel with early policies promoting energy efficiency, policies which were originally intended to improve air quality by cutting pollution from industrial plants also resulted in important emission reductions. This experience shows we can reduce GHG emissions further if we consider the climate impacts of various policies more systematically.
There are several opportunities for member states to reduce emissions. The EU emissions trading system (EU ETS) will be centrally managed at the European level after 2012, while national governments will have the responsibility to achieve emissions targets in sectors not covered by the trading system - for example, transport, the residential or the waste sector.
From what we have seen so far, changes in emissions from those sectors are essential for assessing the progress towards Kyoto targets.
Consider the transport sector. Transport is responsible for almost a quarter of GHG emissions in the EU. We recently published a report on transport in the EU, which showed that a fundamental shift is needed in this area.
Emissions from transport - excluding international shipping - grew 27 per cent between 1990 and 2009 - so as Europe’s overall emissions are falling, this sector is becoming increasingly important.
The transport sector must be ambitious, and the introduction of long-term emission reduction targets for this sector currently being discussed in Brussels could focus these efforts.
Mitigation is a huge task – but unfortunately it is not the only challenge arising from climate change. We are seeing some degree of change from GHG emissions already in the atmosphere, so we must also be prepared to adapt.
During this century, the global average temperature is projected to rise between 1.8 and four degrees celcius, even if additional is action taken to limit emissions. For the Arctic, temperature increases could be as much as six to eight degrees celcius.
The costs of adaptation in Europe could be several billion euros per year, but they are likely to be far less than the costs of inaction. The EU adaptation framework aims to develop a comprehensive strategy by 2013, supported by a new web service providing a ‘clearinghouse mechanism on adaptation’ to share and maintain information.
So far, 12 European countries have put in place adaptation strategies, as have several regions and cities.
The good news is that the European public is backing climate action. A eurobarometer survey in June 2011 showed that 89 per cent of European citizens see climate change as serious, and many respondents saw climate change as more worrying than the economic crisis.
Europe has taken some concrete steps towards tackling climate change. Now it’s time to for other major players and emerging economies to follow.
Jacqueline McGlade is executive director of the European Environment Agency
