UK population will be biggest in EU

The UK will overtake Germany and France to become the biggest country in the EU in 50 years' time, according to a new population projection.

A survey of demographic trends by Eurostat, the statistical agency of the commission, finds Britain's positive birth rate contrasts with most other large countries in Europe.

The impact of population fall and the ageing of key European societies could present major problems for pensions, health and welfare systems across much of the EU, says the report.

But Britain, it says, is likely to suffer less because of its strong population growth and the younger average age of its society.

Immigration is singled out as the main factor, seen as crucial to maintaining population growth. But the report says this probably will not be enough to reverse the trend of population decline in many countries.

The survey predicts that Britain's population by 2060 will increase by 25 per cent  from the current figure of just over 61 million to almost 77 million.

Germany is currently the biggest country in the EU, with more than 82 million people, but it is likely to shed almost 12 million by 2060, says the report. The widely praised family policies and support of working women in France means that the French population will rise to almost 72 million by 2060.

With the British birth rate now at its highest in a generation - 1.91 children per woman - the UK has less to fear about any "generation wars" brought on by the "demographic time-bomb" of ageing and shrinking populations where those in work cannot support the pension needs of retired citizens.

Of the biggest six EU countries (Germany, France, Britain, Italy, Spain and Poland) Britain has by far the greatest birth rate. Only Luxembourg, Cyprus, and Ireland are growing faster than the UK.

The average age of Europeans is now just over 40; this will be 48 by 2060. The average age for Britons is 39 and will be 42 in 2060 - the lowest age in Europe with the exception of Luxembourg.

The survey says the EU's population now stands at 495 million and is projected to rise to more than 520 million by 2035, before falling to 505 million by 2060.

"From 2015 onwards deaths would outnumber births and population growth due to natural increase would cease," says a Eurostat official.

"Positive net migration would be the only population growth factor.However, from 2035 this positive net migration would no longer counterbalance the negative natural change."

"With climate change and globalisation the ageing of the population is one of the major challenges Europe must face," said a commission spokeswoman.

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